The upcoming week brings a warming trend, thanks to plenty of sunshine and the upper-level pattern. Surface high pressure will keep conditions dry through Christmas Eve, providing a pleasant and precipitation-free lead-up to the holiday.
On Christmas Day, a weak trough will move through the region, introducing low chances of light rain. However, this system is expected to weaken as it tracks eastward, with minimal support limiting rainfall. Current ensemble models indicate only a 25% probability of receiving 0.10 inches or more of precipitation over 24 hours. Despite the rain chances, temperatures will remain above normal, with increasing cloud cover accompanying the light showers.
Looking toward the end of the week and into the weekend, forecast uncertainty increases significantly. A series of shortwaves could amplify long-wave troughing and cyclogenesis to our west, but models vary widely on the placement and impact of these features. If the system shifts closer, we could see enhanced moisture and lingering rain chances. Conversely, a more distant system would result in a drier period.
For now, any late-week precipitation is expected to fall as rain, with above-normal temperatures persisting into the weekend.
