As Christmas approaches, the question on everyone’s mind is, “Will we see a white Christmas this year?”
Current Forecast: Slim Chances for Snow
According to the latest data from the GFS and ECMWF weather models, the probability of seeing at least 1 inch of snowfall between December 20th and December 25th is quite low. For higher elevations, there’s only about a 30% chance of hitting that 1-inch mark. Meanwhile, for those in the lower elevations, the chance of snowfall is practically zero. Adding to that, temperatures on Christmas Day are projected to climb into the 50s, making it feel more like early spring than a classic winter wonderland.
How Rare Are White Christmases in East Tennessee?
If you’re wondering if this is typical, the answer is yes. White Christmases are a rare occurrence in East Tennessee. Historically, the region sees measurable snowfall on Christmas Day only about once every 10 years. The reason? East Tennessee’s climate often sits in a tricky middle ground — too far south for consistent heavy snow but not far enough south to escape winter’s chill entirely.
For most of the region, December temperatures tend to hover just above freezing, which means even if precipitation does fall, it’s often in the form of rain rather than snow. When the atmospheric setup is just right — with cold air in place and moisture arriving at the perfect time — that’s when we get our rare, picture-perfect white Christmas. But those conditions don’t align often.
